51-factor NFL projection model

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AFI Performance — 2026 Week 9
Weekly results and Season to Date. Every eligible stored projection counts.
This Week
Straight-Up 2–0 100.0%
ATS 0–2 0.0%
O/U 2–0 100.0%
Season to Date
Straight-Up 81–40 66.9%
ATS 55–48–4 53.4%
O/U 48–53–1 47.5%
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Public AFI Record

Every eligible projection. Publicly graded.

AFI reports Straight-Up, Against the Spread and Over/Under results from legitimate stored pre-lock or pre-kickoff snapshots. Losses count. Pushes are shown separately. Missing historical snapshots are never recreated after the fact.

Transparent record · No cherry-picking
2026 Regular Season — Season to Date
The primary public AFI record. Updated as eligible regular-season games are completed and graded.
Straight-Up
81–40 · 66.9%
121 eligible graded projections
ATS
55–48–4 · 53.4%
107 eligible graded projections · 4 pushes
O/U
48–53–1 · 47.5%
102 eligible graded projections · 1 push
Historical Results
2026 Preseason Results
Preserved for transparency, but kept separate from the regular-season record.
Straight-Up
17–14 · 54.8%
ATS
7–5 · 58.3%
O/U
6–5 · 54.5%
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This Week's Free Pick · Factor #3

Offensive Line Continuity

See the actual offensive linemen, comparable depth-chart observations, continuity scores and official AFI factor edge behind this week's Free Pick.

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Why AFI Calls Them Projections

AFI Projections, Not Guesses or Gut Feelings.

Every AFI projection is calculated from available football data and AFI’s 51-factor model — with the factor-by-factor reasoning available to see.

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Site built with AI assistance. Game projections driven by NFL football data.

Where AI fits inAI has been used as a development tool in building AFI — helping design, code, test and refine the platform and its analytical systems.

Where the projections come fromWeekly AFI projections are produced by AFI's programmed 51-factor model using imported football data. The model evaluates the available evidence, applies the defined factor logic and weights, and stores the resulting projection and factor-by-factor explanation.

51calculated matchup factors
Up to 16weekly NFL matchups
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1.46M+performance records from 2,825 players since 2023
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These completed examples show AFI projections that correctly identified the straight-up winner. Open any game to see the projection layout, probability, model details and the complete 51-factor “Show Me Why” analysis.

Regular Season · Week 9 · 2026
Completed Example 1 Regular Season Week 9
Cincinnati Bengals
CIN
@
Atlanta Falcons
ATL
FINAL: CIN 34 - ATL 17 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Cincinnati Bengals
52.7% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Score 27.4 - 24.5
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line continuity evidence is currently even between the teams.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Cincinnati Bengals -0.037 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 52.7% versus 49.7%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Atlanta Falcons 0.075 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 46.1% of red-zone possessions versus 52.4% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Neutral 0.000 Both teams have the same number of rest days: 6.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Atlanta Falcons 0.022 The away team has the greater travel burden: 369 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Neutral 0.000 Neither team has a relative time-zone travel advantage.
27 Consecutive Road Games Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing its second or later consecutive road game.
28 Home Field Advantage Atlanta Falcons 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor temperature does not materially affect play.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor wind does not materially affect play.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor precipitation does not materially affect play.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 1050 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. The game is protected from normal outdoor weather effects, so roof status is neutral between the two teams.
34 Head Coach Atlanta Falcons 0.100 The home head coach, Kevin Stefanski, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Zac Taylor.
35 Coaching Continuity Cincinnati Bengals -0.090 Zac Taylor is in Year 8 - Elite Long-Term Continuity with the away team, compared with Kevin Stefanski in Year 1 - New Staff with the home team. The away team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Nick Folk and Evan McPherson as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Jake Bailey and Ryan Rehkow as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Cincinnati Bengals -0.100 The current market spread is +3.0 from the home-team perspective, making the away team a 3.0-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of -2.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form Cincinnati Bengals -0.180 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 3-2, recency-weighted margin 8.7, form score 5.3. Home recent record: 2-3, recency-weighted margin -4.1, form score -2.8. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Cincinnati Bengals -0.050 The away team has faced the tougher schedule to this point. Away opponent win percentage is 0.516 versus 0.472 for the home team, a difference of 0.044. Factor #41 gives the away team the Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Cincinnati Bengals -0.200 The away team has the stronger quarterback-continuity profile. Away continuity score is 100.0% versus 55.0% for the home team. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 3 for the away team. The home team shows a recent quarterback change. Factor #46 favors the away team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Cincinnati Bengals -0.040 The away team has the stronger defensive-lineup continuity profile. Away continuity score is 99.0% versus 90.0% for the home team. The home team retains 7 of 8 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 10 of 10. Recent defensive starter changes: home 1, away 0. Factor #47 favors the away team.
48 Returning Starters Cincinnati Bengals -0.080 The away team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Away returning-starter rate is 72.0% versus 48.0% for the home team. The home team returns 12 of 25 established starters, while the away team returns 18 of 25. Factor #48 favors the away team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 2 Regular Season Week 9
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAX
@
Baltimore Ravens
BAL
FINAL: JAX 33 - BAL 10 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Jacksonville Jaguars
51.9% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Score 27.4 - 16.8
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line continuity evidence is currently even between the teams.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Jacksonville Jaguars -0.069 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 52% versus 46.2%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Baltimore Ravens 0.091 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 41% of red-zone possessions versus 48.5% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Neutral 0.000 Both teams have the same number of rest days: 4.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Both teams are playing on short rest, so neither side receives a short-week advantage.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Baltimore Ravens 0.041 The away team has the greater travel burden: 681 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Neutral 0.000 Neither team has a relative time-zone travel advantage.
27 Consecutive Road Games Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing its second or later consecutive road game.
28 Home Field Advantage Baltimore Ravens 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Temperature data is not available yet.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Wind data is not available yet.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Precipitation data is not available yet.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 33 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Outdoor venue. The game is exposed to weather, with any temperature, wind or precipitation impact evaluated by the corresponding environment factors.
34 Head Coach Neutral 0.000 The head-coach experience comparison between Jesse Minter and Liam Coen is not large enough to create a current AFI advantage.
35 Coaching Continuity Jacksonville Jaguars -0.030 Liam Coen is in Year 2 - Developing Continuity with the away team, compared with Jesse Minter in Year 1 - New Staff with the home team. The away team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Tyler Loop and Cam Little as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Ryan Eckley and Logan Cooke as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Jacksonville Jaguars -0.250 The current market spread is +10.0 from the home-team perspective, making the away team a 10.0-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of -5.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form Jacksonville Jaguars -0.180 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 4-1, recency-weighted margin 13.9, form score 5.6. Home recent record: 2-3, recency-weighted margin -13.8, form score -6.4. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Baltimore Ravens 0.050 The home team has faced the tougher schedule to this point. Home opponent win percentage is 0.515 versus 0.480 for the away team, a difference of 0.035. Factor #41 gives the home team the Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 100.0% and away continuity score is 100.0%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 3 comparable snapshot(s), versus 3 for the away team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar defensive-lineup continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 100.0% and away continuity score is 96.4%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #47 advantage. The home team retains 8 of 8 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 10 of 11. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 1.
48 Returning Starters Jacksonville Jaguars -0.080 The away team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Away returning-starter rate is 75.0% versus 60.0% for the home team. The home team returns 15 of 25 established starters, while the away team returns 18 of 24. Factor #48 favors the away team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 3 Regular Season Week 8
Chicago Bears
CHI
@
Seattle Seahawks
SEA
FINAL: CHI 34 - SEA 17 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Chicago Bears
51.2% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Chicago Bears
Projected Score 22.6 - 22.1
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Chicago Bears -0.300 Offensive-line continuity evidence favors the away team. Away normalized score: 100; home normalized score: 66.7.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Chicago Bears -0.037 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 47.7% versus 44.6%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Chicago Bears -0.009 The away defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 45.3% of red-zone possessions versus 46% allowed by the home defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Chicago Bears -0.150 Away team has a rest advantage: 11 days since its previous game versus 8 days for the home team.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Seattle Seahawks 0.104 The away team has the greater travel burden: 1734 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Seattle Seahawks 0.060 The away team crosses 2 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing its second or later consecutive road game.
28 Home Field Advantage Seattle Seahawks 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Temperature data is not available yet.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Wind data is not available yet.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Precipitation data is not available yet.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 20 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Outdoor venue. The game is exposed to weather, with any temperature, wind or precipitation impact evaluated by the corresponding environment factors.
34 Head Coach Chicago Bears -0.050 The away head coach, Ben Johnson, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Mike Macdonald.
35 Coaching Continuity Seattle Seahawks 0.030 Mike Macdonald is in Year 3 - Established Continuity with the home team, compared with Ben Johnson in Year 2 - Developing Continuity with the away team. The home team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Jason Myers and Cairo Santos as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Michael Dickson and Tory Taylor as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Seattle Seahawks 0.100 The current market spread is -3.0 from the home-team perspective, making the home team a 3.0-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of +2.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form Chicago Bears -0.060 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 4-1, recency-weighted margin 2.1, form score 4.0. Home recent record: 2-3, recency-weighted margin 5.1, form score 0.6. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.495 and away opponent win percentage is 0.509. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Chicago Bears -0.100 The away team has the stronger quarterback-continuity profile. Away continuity score is 55.0% versus 33.3% for the home team. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team. Both teams show a recent quarterback change. Factor #46 favors the away team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Seattle Seahawks 0.040 The home team has the stronger defensive-lineup continuity profile. Home continuity score is 100.0% versus 88.5% for the away team. The home team retains 8 of 8 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 9 of 10. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 1. Factor #47 favors the home team.
48 Returning Starters Seattle Seahawks 0.080 The home team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Home returning-starter rate is 76.9% versus 57.7% for the away team. The home team returns 20 of 26 established starters, while the away team returns 15 of 26. Factor #48 favors the home team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
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