51-factor NFL projection model

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AFI Performance — 2026 Week 3
Weekly results and Season to Date. Every eligible stored projection counts.
This Week
Straight-Up 0–0 —
ATS 0–0 —
O/U 0–0 —
Season to Date
Straight-Up 22–10 68.8%
ATS 16–15–1 51.6%
O/U 14–17 45.2%
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Public AFI Record

Every eligible projection. Publicly graded.

AFI reports Straight-Up, Against the Spread and Over/Under results from legitimate stored pre-lock or pre-kickoff snapshots. Losses count. Pushes are shown separately. Missing historical snapshots are never recreated after the fact.

Transparent record · No cherry-picking
2026 Regular Season — Season to Date
The primary public AFI record. Updated as eligible regular-season games are completed and graded.
Straight-Up
22–10 · 68.8%
32 eligible graded projections
ATS
16–15–1 · 51.6%
32 eligible graded projections · 1 push
O/U
14–17 · 45.2%
31 eligible graded projections
Historical Results
2026 Preseason Results
Preserved for transparency, but kept separate from the regular-season record.
Straight-Up
17–14 · 54.8%
ATS
7–5 · 58.3%
O/U
6–5 · 54.5%
AFI Transparency

See what's behind the 51 factors.

AFI is more than a final percentage. Explore some of the actual personnel evidence and data coverage behind the matchup model.

This Week's Free Pick · Factor #3

Offensive Line Continuity

See the actual offensive linemen, comparable depth-chart observations, continuity scores and official AFI factor edge behind this week's Free Pick.

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Why AFI Calls Them Projections

AFI Projections, Not Guesses or Gut Feelings.

Every AFI projection is calculated from available football data and AFI’s 51-factor model — with the factor-by-factor reasoning available to see.

How AFI Is Built

Site built with AI assistance. Game projections driven by NFL football data.

Where AI fits inAI has been used as a development tool in building AFI — helping design, code, test and refine the platform and its analytical systems.

Where the projections come fromWeekly AFI projections are produced by AFI's programmed 51-factor model using imported football data. The model evaluates the available evidence, applies the defined factor logic and weights, and stores the resulting projection and factor-by-factor explanation.

51calculated matchup factors
Up to 16weekly NFL matchups
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1.46M+performance records from 2,825 players since 2023
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These completed examples show AFI projections that correctly identified the straight-up winner. Open any game to see the projection layout, probability, model details and the complete 51-factor “Show Me Why” analysis.

Regular Season · Week 2 · 2026
Completed Example 1 Regular Season Week 2
New York Giants
NYG
@
Los Angeles Rams
LAR
FINAL: NYG 6 - LAR 28 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Los Angeles Rams
54.4% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Los Angeles Rams
Projected Score 22.5 - 19.0
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line continuity evidence is currently even between the teams.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Los Angeles Rams 0.165 The home offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 51.1% versus 37.4%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Los Angeles Rams 0.093 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 42.7% of red-zone possessions versus 50.4% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Los Angeles Rams 0.150 Home team has a rest advantage: 10 days since its previous game versus 7 days for the away team.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Los Angeles Rams 0.147 The away team has the greater travel burden: 2449 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Los Angeles Rams 0.090 The away team crosses 3 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing its second or later consecutive road game.
28 Home Field Advantage Los Angeles Rams 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor temperature does not materially affect play.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor wind does not materially affect play.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor precipitation does not materially affect play.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 130 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. The game is protected from normal outdoor weather effects, so roof status is neutral between the two teams.
34 Head Coach New York Giants -0.150 The away head coach, John Harbaugh, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Sean McVay.
35 Coaching Continuity Los Angeles Rams 0.090 Sean McVay is in Year 10 - Elite Long-Term Continuity with the home team, compared with John Harbaugh in Year 1 - New Staff with the away team. The home team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Harrison Mevis and Dominic Zvada as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Ethan Evans and Jordan Stout as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Los Angeles Rams 0.200 The current market spread is -7.0 from the home-team perspective, making the home team a 7.0-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of +4.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form New York Giants -0.120 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 4-1, recency-weighted margin 14.4, form score 7.3. Home recent record: 3-2, recency-weighted margin 4.7, form score 2.1. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.512 and away opponent win percentage is 0.508. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 100.0% and away continuity score is 100.0%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar defensive-lineup continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 100.0% and away continuity score is 100.0%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #47 advantage. The home team retains 9 of 9 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 9 of 9. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 0.
48 Returning Starters Los Angeles Rams 0.160 The home team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Home returning-starter rate is 77.8% versus 32.1% for the away team. The home team returns 21 of 27 established starters, while the away team returns 9 of 28. Factor #48 favors the home team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 2 Regular Season Week 2
Indianapolis Colts
IND
@
Kansas City Chiefs
KC
FINAL: IND 30 - KC 33 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Kansas City Chiefs
53.4% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Score 17.5 - 25.7
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line continuity evidence is currently even between the teams.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Indianapolis Colts -0.015 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 50.6% versus 49.3%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Kansas City Chiefs 0.054 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 45.3% of red-zone possessions versus 49.8% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Indianapolis Colts -0.050 Away team has a rest advantage: 7 days since its previous game versus 6 days for the home team.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Kansas City Chiefs 0.027 The away team has the greater travel burden: 447 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Kansas City Chiefs 0.030 The away team crosses 1 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing its second or later consecutive road game.
28 Home Field Advantage Kansas City Chiefs 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Temperature data is not available yet.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Wind data is not available yet.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Precipitation data is not available yet.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 890 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Outdoor venue. The game is exposed to weather, with any temperature, wind or precipitation impact evaluated by the corresponding environment factors.
34 Head Coach Kansas City Chiefs 0.150 The home head coach, Andy Reid, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Shane Steichen.
35 Coaching Continuity Kansas City Chiefs 0.060 Andy Reid is in Year 14 - Elite Long-Term Continuity with the home team, compared with Shane Steichen in Year 4 - Established Continuity with the away team. The home team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Harrison Butker and Spencer Shrader as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Matt Araiza and Rigoberto Sanchez as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Kansas City Chiefs 0.150 The current market spread is -6.5 from the home-team perspective, making the home team a 6.5-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of +3.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form Kansas City Chiefs 0.180 The home team has the stronger recent-form profile. Home recent record: 1-3-1, recency-weighted margin 5.4, form score 0.7. Away recent record: 0-4-1, recency-weighted margin -16.6, form score -8.5. Factor #40 favors the home team.
41 Strength of Schedule Kansas City Chiefs 0.050 The home team has faced the tougher schedule to this point. Home opponent win percentage is 0.525 versus 0.488 for the away team, a difference of 0.037. Factor #41 gives the home team the Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 100.0% and away continuity score is 100.0%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Kansas City Chiefs 0.040 The home team has the stronger defensive-lineup continuity profile. Home continuity score is 100.0% versus 90.9% for the away team. The home team retains 10 of 10 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 10 of 11. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 1. Factor #47 favors the home team.
48 Returning Starters Indianapolis Colts -0.040 The away team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Away returning-starter rate is 53.9% versus 48.2% for the home team. The home team returns 13 of 27 established starters, while the away team returns 14 of 26. Factor #48 favors the away team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 3 Regular Season Week 2
Miami Dolphins
MIA
@
San Francisco 49ers
SF
FINAL: MIA 13 - SF 35 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
San Francisco 49ers
56.0% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up San Francisco 49ers
Projected Score 15.5 - 26.8
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Miami Dolphins -0.180 Offensive-line continuity evidence favors the away team. Away normalized score: 100; home normalized score: 80.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense San Francisco 49ers 0.107 The home offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 56.9% versus 48%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense San Francisco 49ers 0.019 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 48.2% of red-zone possessions versus 49.8% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days San Francisco 49ers 0.100 Home team has a rest advantage: 9 days since its previous game versus 7 days for the away team.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance San Francisco 49ers 0.150 The away team has the greater travel burden: 2555 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change San Francisco 49ers 0.090 The away team crosses 3 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games San Francisco 49ers 0.030 The away team is playing its 2nd consecutive road game, creating a greater road-schedule burden than the home team.
28 Home Field Advantage San Francisco 49ers 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Temperature data is not available yet.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Wind data is not available yet.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Precipitation data is not available yet.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 40 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Outdoor venue. The game is exposed to weather, with any temperature, wind or precipitation impact evaluated by the corresponding environment factors.
34 Head Coach San Francisco 49ers 0.150 The home head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Jeff Hafley.
35 Coaching Continuity San Francisco 49ers 0.090 Kyle Shanahan is in Year 10 - Elite Long-Term Continuity with the home team, compared with Jeff Hafley in Year 1 - New Staff with the away team. The home team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Eddy Pineiro and Riley Patterson as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Corliss Waitman and Bradley Pinion as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread San Francisco 49ers 0.250 The current market spread is -13.3 from the home-team perspective, making the home team a 13.3-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of +5.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.3 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form San Francisco 49ers 0.180 The home team has the stronger recent-form profile. Home recent record: 3-2, recency-weighted margin 12.4, form score 6.1. Away recent record: 0-5, recency-weighted margin -16.1, form score -9.2. Factor #40 favors the home team.
41 Strength of Schedule San Francisco 49ers 0.050 The home team has faced the tougher schedule to this point. Home opponent win percentage is 0.506 versus 0.471 for the away team, a difference of 0.035. Factor #41 gives the home team the Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 100.0% and away continuity score is 100.0%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity San Francisco 49ers 0.080 The home team has the stronger defensive-lineup continuity profile. Home continuity score is 100.0% versus 80.0% for the away team. The home team retains 12 of 12 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 8 of 10. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 2. Factor #47 favors the home team.
48 Returning Starters San Francisco 49ers 0.040 The home team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Home returning-starter rate is 54.8% versus 44.0% for the away team. The home team returns 17 of 31 established starters, while the away team returns 11 of 25. Factor #48 favors the home team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
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AFI Football is designed as an analytical companion for NFL matchups. Instead of presenting a single unexplained projection, AFI combines dozens of football, personnel, scheduling, situational and market signals into one structured weekly analysis.

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